Fundamentals matter. Welcome to ICM Analytics.
Performance Update — February 15, 2026
After hitting its all-time low of -$95,081 cumulative P&L on February 1, the aVault has staged a significant recovery — clawing back +$51,601 in just 13 days. The data shows a structural shift in how the vault manages risk.
Feb 5-14 vs Jan 26 - Feb 4
- Net P&L: +$18,720 vs -$68,571 — an $87,291 swing between periods
- Avg losing day: -$7,059 vs -$16,792 — losses are 58% smaller
- Worst single day: -$9,852 vs -$25,046 — max drawdown cut by 61%
- Win rate: 43.6% vs 41.2% — modest improvement, better bet sizing
- Feb 14: +$35,163 — best single day in vault history (76 bets, 31.5% ROI)
The volume has scaled dramatically — averaging $66,800/day in the recent period, up 3-5x from the $10-25K/day range in Nov-Dec 2025. The vault is deploying significantly more capital while keeping losses contained.
Where the Edge Lives
European football and esports are the vault's profit engines. All-time leaders: Ligue 1 (+$21.7K, 56% ROI), Premier League (+$21.4K), League of Legends (+$19.3K), Dota 2 (+$14.6K), and NFL (+$13.3K). The biggest drags remain NHL (-$25.7K) and Scottish Premiership (-$20.2K). The Feb 14 breakout was driven by a Bundesliga matchday with high model accuracy across multiple games.
Staker Conviction Remains Strong
36.66% of supply staked with 85% whale retention among the top 20 depositors and only 12% churn — impressive given the extended drawdown period. 260 unique depositors continue to hold through the recovery.
Important Context
The vault remains in overall loss territory at -$82,459 cumulative P&L. February 14 was an exceptional outlier — without it, the 10-day period would be -$16,443. One monster day does not confirm a structural edge. The vault needs sustained performance across multiple weeks to reach breakeven. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
What is SIRE?
SIRE Protocol is an on-chain DeFAI hedge fund built on Solana that uses AI-driven sports prediction models to generate yield. Founded by the team behind CrunchDAO and SCORE Vision, SIRE offers vault products (aVault, DeltaVault) where deposited funds are deployed into prediction markets on Kalshi and Polymarket, with vault fees directed to $SIRE token burns, buybacks, and staking rewards.
SIRE is built by the visionary team behind Score Vision (@webuildscore). The team has deep expertise in quantitative research, AI-powered sports analytics, and decentralized finance innovation.
Maxime (Max) Sebti
CEO & Intellectual Lead
Co-founder of CrunchDAO and pioneer in distributed quant research and collective intelligence. Max's many years with @crunchDAO have paved the way for decentralized, collaborative approaches.
Tim Kalic
CTO
Instrumental in creating the technical backbone of SCORE, including video-to-data pipelines and Bittensor Subnet 44 infrastructure that feeds SIRE's quant engine.
Nigel Grant
CRO
Driving product innovation, sports betting strategy, and business development, merging real-time analytics with commercial excellence.
This foundational team, together with a global network of ML engineers, quants, and modelers enabled by @crunchDAO, positions SIRE and SCORE at the forefront of decentralized prediction finance.
History & Vision
SIRE was founded by Maxime Sebti (CEO of CrunchDAO), Tim Kalic (CTO), and Nigel Grant (CRO). CrunchDAO operates a network of 10,000+ ML engineers and 1,200+ PhDs. SIRE leverages this decentralized quant research infrastructure combined with real-time Bittensor data (Subnet 44) to power autonomous prediction finance on Solana.
SIRE operates as an on-chain DeAI hedge fund and DAO, leveraging real-time, high-quality tracking data sourced from SCORE Vision's Subnet 44 - the "optic lens" for @bittensor. This integration is reinforced by the founders' experience with CrunchDAO, a decentralized collective intelligence, founded in January 2023.
Under Maxime (Max) Sebti's leadership, CrunchDAO has delivered landmark results for the financial sector:
- Built a global network of 10,000+ machine learning engineers and 1,200+ PhDs focused on quantitative research, modeling, and finance-specific analytics.
- Achieved double-digit accuracy gains for top-tier asset management and investment houses, including a +17% improvement in asset pricing prediction for ADIA Lab.
- Advanced signal breakthroughs for equity selection, FX trading, and predictive gene research relevant to biotech investing.
- Outperformed traditional in-house quant teams by leveraging large-scale, crowdsourced modeling competitions.
- Delivered the Mid+One pricing engine via CrunchDAO's competition-driven infrastructure, now actively used at leading investment banks.
- Pioneered privacy-preserving, encrypted modeling protocols and merit-based rewards.
These results highlight how SIRE's founders have spent years pushing decentralization, transparency, and crowd-powered intelligence to the cutting edge. SIRE is the next evolution - an agentic, on-chain hedge fund.
Fresh Innovation, Infinite Possibilities
$SIRE citizens benefit from the innovation called prediction markets.
The Key Difference
In legacy betting: Win too much and the house may ban you.
In decentralized markets: Win and the crowd returns for more - enabling unlimited scale.
SIRE can deploy $500K today, $5M tomorrow, and beyond $50M+ with no limitations.
Products for Users
SIRE offers three core products: aLink, a real-time betting terminal with direct Kalshi event access; aVault, an AI-managed vault for directional event bets with higher return potential; and DeltaVault, a lower-risk market-making vault. All vault fees flow back to $SIRE holders through burns, buybacks, and staking yields.
aLink
Real-time betting terminal with direct Kalshi event access. Currently getting a huge update: See announcement
aVault
Vault for directional event bets at scale. Deposit USDC with variable APY (based on current performance). View live dashboard with daily updates
DeltaVault
Market-making platform for prediction markets. Lower APY on stables with less risk than aVault. DeltaVault is expected to create massive volumes on @Kalshi and @Polymarket which are rumored to do a huge airdrop based on volume in the future.
How SIRE Vaults Drive Value to $SIRE
SIRE vaults create a three-part value flywheel for $SIRE holders: a 1% annual TVL fee is used to burn tokens (reducing supply), 10% of performance fees fund open-market buybacks, and 50% of performance fees are distributed as yield to $SIRE stakers. This mechanism means every dollar of vault profit directly accrues value to the token.
The $SIRE token wasn't designed to sit idle. It was designed to capture the Alpha generated by the vaults and convert it into value for holders.
The mechanism is constant. Every time USDC is added to αVault & ΔVault, and users realise profits, a chain reaction is triggered:
Burns
A 1% Annual Fee on total TVL is permanently burned.
Buybacks
10% of Performance Fees are allocated to market buy-backs. Constant buy pressure, funded by revenue.
Yield
50% of Performance Fees flow directly to stakers.
Tokenomics at Scale: $5M TVL Projection
To visualise the engine at scale, let's apply current αVault performance metrics to a hypothetical $5M TVL capacity for αVault:
Current Performance (2,376 bets over 117 days)
- Total Volume: $3.5M
- Net P&L: -$82,459 (recovering from -$95K low on Feb 1)
- Win Rate: 46.09%
While markets are probabilistic and past performance does not guarantee future results, the following projection illustrates the tokenomics at a hypothetical $5M TVL, assuming the vault sustains its recent positive trajectory:
And that is just one part of the tokenomic equation. As more vaults launch, including the market-making vault, the flywheel between $SIRE and the vaults continues to compound and accelerate.
The Flywheel Effect
Vaults compound capital. $SIRE compounds value.
After 117 days of live trading, the αVault has demonstrated both edge and resilience — recovering from a -$95K drawdown to prove the model adapts. As TVL scales, the flywheel compounds.
Upcoming Airdrops
The upcoming airdrops for prediction markets are expected to be lucrative for early adopters. Current valuations are sky-high and real-world adoption is increasing by the day.
SIRE's market cap is $2.0M—a fraction compared to these giants, yet technologically differentiated with massive potential.
Potential Airdrop Formula
To maximize effect for $SIRE airdrop, the most likely approach for the team (this is NOT confirmed) will be:
Strategic Partnerships
Official Partnership: Kalshi
SIRE is an official partner of Kalshi, the first CFTC-regulated exchange for event contracts and the most influential prediction market platform globally. This partnership embeds SIRE deeply in the regulated event trading ecosystem, enabling cross-platform market access, compliance, and liquidity.
SIRE's aLink terminal will connect users directly to Kalshi events - unlocking compliant trading, hedging, and yield in real-world markets.
SCORE Enabler Partnerships
@webuildscore has recently partnered with:
- Reading FC: Year-long collaboration for advanced analytic and tactical AI, integrating elite football expertise into SIRE's predictive stack.
- AVIA: SCORE's vision AI powers industrial automation, proving breadth and continuous improvement beyond sports.
Although this does not directly influence the chart of $SIRE, this ensures @webuildscore gets more knowledge, data, and funding that accelerates growth in $SIRE with faster development and higher data accuracy.
How to Track This Investment
Visit icm-analytics.com/sire-dashboard/ periodically to see the performance of the vault. Data updates daily with full transparency.
Another metric to track is the amount of tokens staked in the staking contract, which will be integrated on our website in the near future. Currently as of December 21, 31.07% of the supply has been staked. There is no lock-up period for staking tokens.
🔥 Token Burns
5,521 SIRE (0.03%) tokens have been permanently burned (sent to the dead address). Burns are funded by protocol fees and the $300M fund performance fees, reducing supply over time.
Performance of the $300M Fund
In June 2025, SIRE Protocol partnered with a $300M institutional hedge fund. All performance fees generated by this fund are used exclusively for $SIRE token buybacks and burns. As vault performance improves, the probability of significant buyback events increases, creating a direct link between trading performance and token value.
On June 11, $SIRE partnered with an unknown $300M fund: See announcement
SIRE's vault returns and protocol profits also power an industry-leading $300 million fund which pays a performance fee to $SIRE - completely used to buyback and burn $SIRE tokens.
The mechanism is simple: as the vaults perform, protocol profits accrue, making it more likely this hedge fund pays a big performance fee, resulting in a huge buyback of $SIRE tokens. Currently, with the exceptional performance of aVault, we think the odds for buybacks are in favor of the citizens (holders).
Roadmap: What's Next?
- Scale aVault capacity for increased TVL and more sophisticated strategies.
- Launch DeltaVault for steady market-making returns.
- Major upgrade to aLink terminal with Kalshi event integration and advanced analytics.
- Integrations with platforms like football.fun for ecosystem expansion.
SIRE and SCORE together define the frontier of on-chain prediction finance - uniting world-class AI, decentralized intelligence, blue-chip partnerships, transparent governance, and robust infrastructure for long-term value and growth.
Risks to Monitor
Key risks include smart contract vulnerabilities, vault performance variability (betting-based returns are inherently volatile), limited liquidity at current market cap, dependency on external platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket), and potential regulatory changes affecting prediction markets. The aVault ROI has fluctuated significantly since launch.
Important Risk Factors
While we are bullish on SIRE's fundamentals and team execution, responsible investing requires acknowledging the risks:
- Smart Contract Risk: aVault, DeltaVault, and staking contracts hold user funds on-chain. Despite audits and testing, smart contract exploits remain a risk in DeFi. Users should only deposit what they can afford to lose.
- Vault Performance Variability: Historical APY does not guarantee future returns. Sports betting models can experience drawdowns. Extended losing streaks or model degradation could impact vault performance.
- Liquidity & Market Cap Risk: At $2.0M market cap, SIRE is a small-cap asset with limited liquidity. Large orders can move price significantly. Exit liquidity during market stress may be constrained.
- Regulatory Landscape (Improved): Both major prediction market platforms now have US regulatory clarity. Kalshi is a CFTC-designated Designated Contract Market (DCM) and won its court battle in May 2025, affirming political event contracts are lawful. Polymarket received CFTC approval in November 2025 for US market access. While some state-level challenges exist and DeFi remains legally evolving, the core prediction market infrastructure SIRE operates on is now federally regulated.
- Platform Dependency: SIRE's products rely on external platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Changes to API access or terms of service could disrupt operations.
- Airdrop Speculation: Potential airdrops from Kalshi and Polymarket are not guaranteed. Basing investment decisions on speculative future rewards carries significant risk.